Washington: Should the World be over-awed by the bold pronouncements made by the new American President Donald Trump post swearing -in ceremony on Monday? Not at All! (It’s just an adoption of ‘Make in India, Make For World’ slogan of Modi Govt.’) !
America has been the undisputed lone Super Power after the collapse of USSR via Glassnost in 1991.
United States of America (USA) got an edge in Global Power balance with victory of Western Block (comprising UK, USA, Western Europe) over Eastern Block (USSR, Japan, Germany etc.). Western Block was technologically superior and more resourceful with Atomic power and warfare technology and, wealth than the Opponent Block. It continued to build up its muscle over the decades. At United Nations and UN Security Council also Western Block got an edge with 3:2 line-up verses Eastern Block, other global power Blocks falling in line with their whims and choices.
While USSR also continued to built up its arsenal, disciplined Armed forces, superior Space research, yet Communist ideology forbade it from building economic power and democratic social bonds; that left its Block frittering away the advantages and its unity, both externally and internally. The Bipolar World Order gave way to a single Power dominance in less than 50 years !
The Positives of Trump’s Comeback: The announcements on America First, being heard with loud Drum-beats and from roof-tops is just the bold reiteration of America’s position as a SuperCop. There are certainly going to be many positive dividends from the comeback of a strong and decisive leader in White House.
President Biden Adminstration had lost US’ Thumbs Up aura following its withdrawal from Afghanistan on August 30, 2021. The Russia-Ukraine war and its prolongation for about 3 years, showed the US policy on Europe and vis-a-vis NATO in poor shape, lacking any decisive direction. Russia under Putin, proved that a Strong Decisive leader is worth more than an indecicive Power (and its Wealthier Blocks). Israeli PM Netanyahu is standing taller lonely, surrounded by a herd of un-ethical enemies, who captured unarmed civilians to gain advantage over a Nation of a few lakh Jews.
Prez. Donald Trump has sent very strong and clear STOP signals on all disputed issues across the Globe, can be put on an upwards graphline with no more subsidies, repatriation of illegal immigrants from Maxico and Asia/India, and President’s new policy line of non- deployment of US troops in Global conflicts, will be well taken by the Americans. He can certainly retain the dominance with targetted ICBMs, nuclear warhead carrying Drones and more. All these pronouncement would keep US position as SuperCop in global politics with prideful iceing on the proverbial Cake for his own Countrymen, with some doles in the pipeline.
Strong pronouncements on Canada, Mexico, Gulf of Mexico and taking control of Panama Canal has sent the shockwaves down the ruffians’ spines. Canada may not fall into US lap as 51st state, but the message on withdrawal of subsidies, fall of wayward Justin Trudeau has hit the nail on its head and also sent shockwaves across the horizon. Expulsion of illegal immigration is Trump 2.0 govt’s priority, it may annoy some of US friends, but there’s nothing wrong in this. Illegals are unwelcome everywhere, and must be despatched to their origins. (India also has over 3 crore illegals from Bangladesh, Pakistan, Myanmar and Sri Lanka) .
Ceasefire in Israel-Hammas-Pallestine conflict, has given a breathing time to find a mutually acceptable solution to West Asia; any effort to bring Putin-Zelensky on negotiation Table would bring a much needed relief to Europe and other peace loving citizens across the Globe. Incidently, Vladimir Putin has just called Donald Trump as a Cunning (astute) but Pragmatic World Leader!’ Although Russian President Putin would be the gainer with retaining chunks of Ukraine’s territories, redefining its borders with Europe and burrying Zelensky’s ambition to embark on NATO’s ‘shattered’ bandwagon. Vladir Putin with a commanding edge in the war, would have to lose nothing on the Table, except a few bottles of Vodka!
Two ferosiest opponents Donald Trump will need to deal in near future would be expansionist China and fundamentalist regime of Iran and would be the litmus test for his current term. China coupled with North Korea, Russia alongwith some smaller neighbours may like to emerge as 2nd Pole and challenge the American might. Though it could be a herculean task to build such a Block because China with all the military power, big dollar-chest, has rubbed its neighbors on the wrong side at one time or the other in the past and gathers little trust of its neighbors.
India, as the largest democracy, biggest supplier of soft-power to the US and cordial bonding legacy between Donald Trump-Narendra Modi from his first term (2016-2020) should get more benificial dividends, except some re-routing the Indo-US jugalbandi and rhymes, bruised due to Biden administrations’ policy distraction on Bangladesh, Pakistan and Indo-Russia oil-defence deals.
The astute and balanced foreign policy practised by PM Modi-EAM Jaishankar team would have to do some difficult mennures and remaping in the coming months. It’s most likely that Prez. Trumpt will make his first foreign trip to India in the first half of 2025, yet India may find it difficult to revise its Indo-Soviet policy initiatives as Russia has been our consistent ally while many American regimes in the past have been expecting India to toe their line in the global affairs.
The Negatives of Trump’s Comeback are few but quite significant ones. Firstly, a uni- polar world is more dangerous, because any future leader of the Unites States may use its power brazenly. How would any divergent voice be heard followed ?
It could also lead to dumping down of de-dollarisation campaign by China, Russia at BRICS Forum and any chance of alternative currency option for Global trade would be nipped in the budding stage. Smaller nations would have to face a situation, as India faced in 1991 Forex crunch for buying even essentials and critical medicines. Dollar will gain strength and developing economies would have to look for seasonal waves in US treasury policy for any relief.
India, would have to shun its policy of Ruppe Trade option, yet may go for making Rupee convertible sooner than ever thought. Many smaller or significant after-effects of Trump’s hardline policies would need timely rederssal when these emerge over board. ———- Subhash C Vatsain, Editor
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*(pics credit-Britannica, www.etsy.com and our library)
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