Strait of Homuz: Could turn into a battle of Waterloo for Donald Trump!

                 With  Opposing Announcements on the Strait of Hormuz by Iran and the United  States,  the four-and-a-half month old  West Asia conflict enters  into the final round.  Though  the US Prez and his commanders  have yet to establish the primary  purpose behind  attacking Iran on Feb. 27.  Was it for securing Isarel and West Asia from Iran’s growing  Nuclear power  or bringing  about a regime change in Iran with a  pro-US  leadership or  controlling the Global Oil Trade  and make America, the sole broker for  world energy  supply?

By  attacking 140  Iranian  locations  this Sunday, before Iran could  decide  on the Tariff for Oil and other Cargo ships crossing the narrow passage at Hormuz,  the US President Donald Trump has  declared  his  intention of imposing 20%  Transit Tax,  to tighten  his grip on the  Energy economy of the World.  About 80% oil trade from the West Asia and Gulf countries  (Iran, Iraq, Kuwait,  Saudi Arabia, Qatar, UAE, etc.)   is done thru’ the Strait of Hormuz to  destinations in the Eastern Hemisphere viz.,  China,  India, Japan, South Korea,  Sri Lanka, Bangladesh,  Myanmar etc. Most of these  nations procure  their  energy  requirements by  importing crude oil through  these troubled West Asian  routes.

By  announcing  the 20% Transit Tax on  Oil and Cargo  tankers,  United States administration has  created  more confusion over its  targets. Would  Gulf nations, other than Iran,  allow  their  profits on Crude Oil/gas  be  nibbled away thru’ the  US Transit Tax?  Would the Oil consuming nations   continue to suffer  from  illogical, unexpected price shocks, resulting from  such unstable  Energy supply sources? Or search for other sources ?

Whether America should control the Strait of Hormuz? :  It depends on the perspective you take. There isn’t a single objectively correct answer.  Critics would  argue that the Hormuz  Strait is bordered by Iran and Oman, not the United States.  After all, Iran and Oman are  two major Crude oil  and Gas producing nations of the  world. Under international maritime law, it is an international Strait where ships enjoy transit rights, and  no outside country has sovereignty over it.  Any unilateral U.S. control could be viewed as violating the sovereignty of regional states and could increase tensions or even provoke conflict.  Many believe security should instead be provided through multinational cooperation  ( read  United Nations),  rather than one country’s Dominance or Control!

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            The  US  policy makers  and a few  Supporters would  argue that: The Strait of Hormuz is one of the world’s most important maritime chokepoints, with a significant share of global oil and LNG shipments passing through it. ‘ The U.S. Navy has long helped protect commercial shipping from piracy, terrorism, and military threats’.

If Iran or another nation  (non-US compliant ally)  tries  to close the Strait, it could trigger a global energy crisis and hurt economies worldwide. A strong U.S. military presence may deter attacks and reassure its  allies (sic !).  

Oil Producing Gulf Nations Predicament:   Most  of the Gulf nations in  West Asia  are  long time US allies,  Business Partners and  have US Bases on their soil. Their oil/gas production,  Oil Wells’  operational  safety,  pricing and  supply  are mostly controlled and dictated by US interests.  The United States Navy maintains a significant military presence in the region.  And the U.S. works with allies to protect commercial shipping.

Though  the  International law recognizes the right of ships to transit through the Strait, even though it passes through the territorial waters of Iran and Oman.

In short: Most international law and diplomacy favor keeping the Strait of Hormuz  open to all Nations rather than allowing any single country—including the United States or Iran—to control access.

NATO and EU  continue  to be in Awe  since the return of  Donald Trump  onto the throne of world’s most powerful nation. With tremendous  fire-power,  economic advantage and dominance over global poitics since  World  War-II and formation of United Nations; the present  leader  of Unipolar  World Order.   Dealing with a hawkish  and  wayward person  at the helms  of  NATO, the world’s top military alliance, has put most of the heads of NATO  members,  on nerves,  since January 25,  2025.

The very first announcement by Prez Trump was to bring Peace in the World and get a Nobel  Peace  Prize  nomination!  Sick of  three-year long Russia-Ukraine war  since February 24, 2022, they expected  ‘quick-relief  balm’  and a retreat by  Russia from  Ukrainian territories,  but they  were  shocked to hear the US Prez Trump  hinting at  withdrawal from NATO and  presenting a  300 Billion Dollar bill  covering  arms-ammuntion- aircraft use through NATO  during  the Russia-Ukraine war.  Was he afraid of facing  the Russian Prez  Vladimir Putin or had some soft-corner feelings for his rival  and  ‘Robinhood of  Russia- on  a  campaign  for Rivival of USSR’ ?                                                                                                                           —-(to be  continued)