Over 90% deaths went unreported? Why WHO data raises questions

WHILE there is little doubt that India’s official Covid-19 death toll is an undercount, as is the case with probably most other countries, the “excess mortality” figures released by the World Health Organisation Thursday raise several questions.

The WHO’s estimate of 47.4 lakh Covid-related deaths in India in 2020 and 2021 flies in the face of overall death data, historical trends in death reporting, and Covid death compensation claims from states.

If, indeed, the WHO numbers are taken at face value, that would imply India missed 90 per cent of all Covid-19 deaths in the first two years of the pandemic – and possibly millions of deaths were not even recorded.

ignificantly past data shows that India records over 90 per cent of all its deaths. Several population scientists The Indian Express has spoken to in the last few weeks said missing such a large number of deaths was “extremely unlikely”.

According to WHO, 8.3 lakh Covid-19 deaths happened in 2020 – the official Covid-19 toll for India for that year is 1.49 lakh. The government Thursday said that an estimated 81.2 lakh people died in the country that year due to all causes. This is consistent with past data that shows that, on an average, about 83.5 lakh people die in the country every year in the last decade and a half.

In 2019, India recorded 92 per cent of these deaths. The level of death registrations has seen a sharp rise in the last few years, from 79 per cent in 2017, to 86 per cent in 2018, to 92 per cent in 2019. In its statement, the government also claimed that 99.95 per cent of all deaths were recorded in 2020.