Are America-Pakistan-Iran cooking a WW-III recipe across Indian borders ?

         Recent events across Indian  neighborhood have presented a scaring scenario for Indian defense strategists. Cross border skirmishes between Iran and Pakistan over Balochistan rebels,   present a bold signal for another break-up in Indian neighborhood. Baloch, Sindhi and Pakhtoons have historically been protesting against Punjabi hegemony in  administration of Pakistan government, since 1947 Partition. Though the region forms a strong Indus valley cultural bonding spread over parts of  Iran. Sindh and Afghan areas, the province was merged with Pakistan.  Being ethnically separate from Punjabi , Afghan Pathans, Balochis never mixed with them during the last 75 years post India’s Partition which saw bloodiest civil way between  two religious communities, Hindus and Muslims, who were once part of  Greater India. This demolishes the myth that Partition on religious lines could solve regional and economic problems.  Separation of Bangladesh from West Pakistan was an example with 25 years of formation of essentially a religious nation in 1947. 

We can’t forget the lone voice of Gandhian leader Abdul Gaffar Khan, who opposed India’s partition on religious lines and detested Jannah’s two-nation theory. His followers are now agitating to rejoin India and taste the fruits of good governance and prosperity.

Pakistan has been facing fierce fights across Afghanistan borders, due to armed conflicts arising out of  drugs, illegal arms trades and power imbalances  in the region. Numerous armed groups in the Hindukush mountain ranges, Sindh,  had been waging continuous conflicts among  Jirga leaders over the centuries. Drug trade and small arms supplies are the main sources of income for the local population, predominantly Muslims, yet fighting for  power.

Drone-war seems to have overtaken the old style fighting with pistols, machine-guns and explosives,  There is no visible serious effort by United Nations and other international Blocks to help bring peace in the region. There is every possibility of situation developing into a full-blown conflagration between Iran, Pakistan and Afghanistan.  Though US war strategists are in glee over the developing conflict between Iran and its neighbors, there is little possibility of their joining  another Front.

It could certainly provide an opportunity to China, to bake its breads in the  growing fire in the neighbourhood.  Now established as  second super power, Chinese leadership  may use this as a suitable window for pushing its arms, funds and strategies for fulfilling their long term ambitions.

Can India stay aloof  and watch a fire blazing in its neighborhood for long ?  India has invested large sums  in projects across Iran, Afghanistan over the last two decades. Continuous wars in the region could decimate India’s  strategic gains  viz-a-viz China-Pak nexus. As Chinese prickly moves in its  neighborhood (viz., Maldives, Sri Lanka, Nepal, Bhutan and Bangladesh) could also force India to join one power block or the other.

America on the other hand, would like this fire to spread slowly but certainly to  keep Asia simmering until gains some edge over China-North Korea nexus. Unites States is already engaged indirectly in two conflicts; Russia-Ukraine war which is soon going to complete 2 years without any tangible advantage. Russia has gained control over a large Ukrainian territory while the latter has neither gained NATO membership nor its South-Eastern   territories back. On Israel-Hamas conflict, US strategists are in catch-22 situation. They can’t dictate withdrawal of Israeli forces from Gaza nor can tell Palestinian leadership to break off with Hamas and its supporters like Iran, Qatar, Syria etc.                                                                                                                                                                                      –Editor