India-US Mini Trade Deal Likely Soon, But Farm Sector Stays Off Table

Washington D.C. : As diplomatic and economic talks intensify, there are growing signs that India and the United States may soon announce a mini trade deal. According to officials from both nations, negotiations have made significant progress on several fronts, but India remains firm on excluding the agriculture sector from the agreement.

The mini deal is being seen as a confidence-building measure and a stepping stone toward a more comprehensive free trade agreement in the future. Former U.S. President Donald Trump, who is expected to play a key role in shaping trade narratives again, has reportedly set July 9 as the deadline for finalizing the deal, according to sources close to the administration. While both sides have expressed optimism, the agriculture issue remains a sticking point. India has consistently maintained a “no entry” stance for foreign agricultural products due to concerns about its large and vulnerable farming community. Indian officials argue that the current structure protects domestic food security and farmer livelihoods.

The deal is expected to cover areas such as pharmaceuticals, medical devices, technology, electronics, energy, and tariffs on select items. Sources say the United States may also relax some tariffs imposed under previous trade tensions, especially on steel and aluminum imports from India, while India could ease duties on certain American goods such as apples, almonds, and industrial equipment.

Trade experts believe the mini deal could reinvigorate bilateral trade relations, especially after a period of strain during the COVID-19 pandemic and shifting global supply chains. A successful agreement would not only strengthen economic ties but also reinforce strategic cooperation between the two democracies in areas like defense, digital trade, and climate tech.

However, farm lobbies in the U.S. have shown disappointment with India’s refusal to open its agricultural markets. Still, Indian negotiators remain cautious, emphasizing that domestic food systems and smallholder farmers must be protected from large-scale international competition. A joint statement is likely if both countries reach consensus on all non-agricultural sectors. Meanwhile, the July 9 deadline looms, and diplomats are working intensively to finalize the framework.